High-Risk Area for Human Infection with Avian Influenza Based on Novel Risk Assessment Matrix

Over the last decade, avian influenza (AI) has been considered an emerging disease that would become next pandemic, particularly in countries like South Korea, with continuous animal outbreaks. In this situation, risk assessment is highly needed to prevent and prepare for human infection AI. Thus, we developed matrix a high-risk area of AI Korea based on notion multiplication hazards vulnerability. This consisted pathogenic (HPAI) poultry farms number poultry-associated production facilities assumed as vulnerability, respectively. The average HPAI at 229-municipal level hazard axis was predicted using negative binomial regression nationwide outbreaks data from 2003 2018. two components were classified into five groups K-means clustering algorithm multiplied, consequently producing area-specific infection. As result, Naju-si, Jeongeup-si, Namwon-si categorized areas These findings contribute designing policies minimize socio-economic damages.